The beginning of each year doesn’t just mark a new 12 months, it brings us the madness of movie awards. I don’t think any industry celebrates its continued existence more than the film industry. In the US, that means more award ceremonies and dinners than you can shake a stick at, if that’s your idea of a good time. Every major city has its film critics circle awards. Every union and guild has an award and then there’s the sublime silliness of the Golden Globes.

Not to be outdone, Hong Kong also has film award ceremonies up the wazoo, with the Hong Kong Film Awards, the Golden Bauhinia Awards, The Golden Durians and yes, even the Hong Kong Film Critics Society weighs in with a dinner. But the Hong Kong film industry is just a pale shadow of its former self. It once released hundreds of films per year; 2007 saw just 51 Hong Kong productions. And when all was said and done, at their annual dinner the Hong Kong Film Critics Society announced that for the entire year they could recommend only nine Hong Kong films. Our government recently announced that they would follow other countries and dish out government grants to attempt to reignite the local industry but, in typical HK fashion, rather than using this money to train and encourage new talent, it will only go to established filmmakers – who are already able to raise money from the usual sources.

Of course, the big kahuna of all movie awards is the Academy Awards. This year the Oscars will be presented on February 24. And this is big business. Over the past 80 years, a win at the Oscars has often meant additional grosses of 10s of millions of dollars. Actors and technicians can double or triple their asking price after a win. It’s such a big deal that many stars actually have clauses in their contracts, set before a film is made, that the studio will conduct an Oscar campaign on their behalf, even specifying how much the studio will spend on those ‘For Your Consideration’ ads.

Despite their pretensions of artistic merit, the Oscars are basically a result of how much the studio spends on promotion, perceived popularity of the nominees amongst the voters (who often haven’t seen all the films they are voting on) and a desire to steer clear of controversy. Actors who never won an Oscar include Richard Burton, Peter O’Toole and Cary Grant. Alfred Hitchcock, Orson Welles and Stanley Kubrick never got one. (Okay, many of them got that honorary “We know you’re gonna die soon so here’s a statue to make up for the fact that you never won one” award.)

But the Oscars are still the Oscars. The awards presentation is broadcast live in every country - except in Hong Kong where the final section is usurped for children’s education programmes - and on all the known planets. Bookmakers around the world rake in the big bucks handicapping the results. Awards for documentaries and foreign language films are jokes without funny punchlines. A month later, no one remembers what won and what lost. And while I have long ago given up any fantasies of winning one myself, I will wake up early and watch the damned thing.

As always, many of the nominated films have yet to publicly screen in Hong Kong. But you don’t need to see all the films to vote, or even have an opinion, and so here are my fearless predictions.

BEST PICTURE: Forget both Juno and Michael Clayton in these categories. Juno will get a screenplay award and Michael Clayton will be forgotten. There Will Be Blood is critically loved but just slightly too weird to get enough votes. Conventional wisdom would point to No Country For Old Men and I love the Coen Brothers and this movie, but its ending pissed off a lot of people. Academy voters sometimes think it’s more respectable to vote for a British film that they deem ’classy’ and so Atonement, a middling adaptation of a great novel featuring people sitting around talking in posh accents, horrific war scenes, an unnecessarily show-offy extended tracking shot and a 16-ton emotional pay-off could sneak through in the end. My vote is for No Country For Old Men.

BEST ACTOR: Well, there’s Daniel Day-Lewis and then there’s everyone else. No one saw the Tommy Lee Jones picture but he could pick up votes from No Country. Everyone loves George Clooney but I think he can do better than Michael Clayton. Johnny Depp and Viggo Mortensen don’t stand a chance.

BEST ACTRESS: I’ve actually only seen one of the nominated performances, Ellen Page in Juno, and she is jaw-droppingly good in that. But she’s young and not nearly as well known as the others. The Academy loves Cate Blanchett and Laura Linney but might want to go with nostalgia and Julie Christie. My money’s on Linney.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: In recent years, this has proven to be the most interesting category and this year is no exception. Tom Wilkinson’s performance in Michael Clayton is too hammy. I haven’t seen Into the Wild but I generally find Hal Holbrook annoying. Casey Affleck is incredibly good in Jesse James but no one saw the movie. Philip Seymour Hoffman would have got a best actor nod for Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead if anyone had seen it; this nomination is a consolation prize. Hollywood loves a great villain and they love Javier Bardem and he’ll walk away with the statue for his psycho killer in No Country For Old Men.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Ruby Dee has already got the Screen Actors Guild award in this category but I confess I’m mystified by that. Yes, she’s old now but her performance in American Gangster didn’t seem that strong to me. Tilda Swinton is annoying in Michael Clayton but she stands a chance because it’s going to get shut out in every other category. Saoirse Ronan is annoying in Atonement and no one can pronounce her name. I didn’t see Gone Baby Gone and have no idea who Amy Ryan is. Cate Blanchett might lose votes since she’s also nominated in the Best Actress category and her performance in I’m Not There may be viewed as more of an impersonation than actual acting. So maybe it will be Ruby Dee after all.

BEST DIRECTOR: Julian Schnabel comes from too far outside the mainstream. Tony Gilroy won’t get it for his first film as a director. Jason Reitman is probably still best known for being Ivan Reitman’s son. Paul Thomas Anderson could get it for the monumental There Will Be Blood but I think it is the Coen Brothers’ year.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: It’s almost insulting that Ratatouille didn’t get a nomination for best picture. It’s as perfect a film as any I’ve ever seen. The other two films don’t stand a chance.

EVERY OTHER CATEGORY: No one cares.

MISSING IN ACTION: Knocked Up, Superbad, Zodiac, Bourne Ultimatum, Sweeney Todd, Charlie Wilson’s War, Sidney Lumet, David Fincher, Tommy Lee Jones (for No Country), Philip Seymour Hoffman (for Before the Devil), Angelina Jolie, Robert Downey Jr, Eddie Vedder

Even knowing the outcome of the awards in advance, there will be plenty of time-honored reasons to watch the awards telecast. I am hoping for the usual spectacle of foot-in-mouth and breast-almost-out-of-dress presenters and winners. I plan to enjoy a sip of my favourite beverage every time the director cuts to Jack Nicholson sitting in the audience, eyebrows three inches above the top of his sunglasses; Nicholson being the only human being on the planet who can wear sunglasses at night and not come off looking like a total prat. That is unless the writers’ strike continues and the telecast ends up being cancelled. At which I will mark the occasion by watching Robert Altman’s The Player much loved by the studios because it’s about a studio executive who kills a writer and gets away with it.