The Regret of Wuhan: How China Missed the Critical Window for Controlling the Coronavirus Outbreak

Out of mountains of reports about the coronavirus epidemic, we at China Change have taken a keen interest in two areas: the origins of the virus, and the decision-making process. The cover story of China News Weekly (中国新闻周刊), published on February 5, put together a detailed timeline and asked the right questions. Within a day, the article was deleted from the magazine’s own website as well as major Chinese news portals.

Luckily, the report is preserved in various news aggregate sites outside China in both simplified and traditional Chinese (武汉之憾:黄金防控期是如何错过的?). The timeline it presented focuses on the discovery of early coronavirus cases, local government’s responses in the seven weeks from December 1 to January 20, what the local and national Center for Disease Control and Prevention did in that period, and without directly raising the question, how the most critical decisions, especially the decision to downplay the outbreak in the first weeks, were made at the State Council and ultimately by the Communist Party leaders in Zhongnanhai.

Unfortunately, we still don’t know much about the first case of the 2019-nConV. This is a translation of the censored article. We added notes at various points of the text to provide more details and context, and links are embedded for your easy reference.  – The Editors ChinaChange.org

The Regret of Wuhan: How China Missed the Critical Window for Controlling the Coronavirus Outbreak

By Li Xiangyu (李想俣), Li Mingzi (李明子), Peng Danni (彭丹妮), and Du Wei (杜玮), in the February 10 issue of China News Weekly

December 31, 2019 saw an announcement that interrupted the Chinese people’s joyous spirit as they prepared to usher in the new year. Circulating on social media sites was a red-letterhead document bearing the official seal of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission (武汉市卫健委) and sounding an emergency notice: “Cases of a pneumonia of unknown cause have intermittently surfaced at Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Market.”…

Read the full translated article here on the China Change website

Hong Kong Is Showing Symptoms of a Failed State

With empty supermarket shelves and rising public distrust, the coronavirus-hit city is ticking most of the boxes.

Crowds are irrational everywhere, and social media hardly helps. Yet the palpable anxiety in coronavirus-hit Hong Kong these days suggests worrying levels of distrust in a city where citizens have always expected private enterprise at least, if not the state, to keep things ticking over. Both have failed miserably, preparing inadequately even after the SARS outbreak that killed almost 300 people in the city in 2003.

A fragile state is usually defined by its inability to protect citizens, to provide basic services and by questions over the legitimacy of its government. After an epidemic and months of poorly handled pro-democracy demonstrations, Hong Kong is ticking most of those boxes. Add in a strained judicial system, and the prognosis for its future as a financial hub looks poor.

A snapshot of the situation first. Hong Kong is not, at least for now, as grim as parts of mainland China, where the outbreak of novel coronavirus has people building barricades, or being followed around by drones. This isn’t Wuhan….

Read the full article on here on Bloomberg

The Same Sickness That Spread the Coronavirus Threatens to Bring Hong Kong to Ruin: the Chinese Communist Party

The core problem is that China, for all its high-tech gloss and high-speed trains, remains saddled with a communist-structured political system. However efficient this might look from afar, it is configured to promote repression, misery and ruinous error. Incentives are grossly skewed to promote the party line, never mind the realities. Inside mainland China, this is too often obscured by propaganda coupled with tight controls over any sign of dissent.
Continue reading on The Dallas News Website here

https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/02/02/the-same-sickness-that-spread-the-coronavirus-threatens-to-bring-hong-kong-to-ruin-the-chinese-communist-party/?fbclid=IwAR3TO16UxVzsAR219BVflH-UDap1erZRPycqYODfBGQiiKLewchpUHkx4oo

689 Threatens FCC Over Andy Chan Ho-tin Talk

In a post on his facebook page 689 threatened the Foreign Correspondents’ Club with eviction from their clubhouse if they allowed Andy Chan Ho-tin’s talk about his views on Hong Kong’s future to go ahead.

https://www.facebook.com/leung.cy.108/posts/678471159182031

It’s amazing how thin skinned and insecure Xi Jinping and his sycophants are.

CY Leung did nothing but demean and denigrate the people he was ‘elected’ to govern during his time as ‘Chief Executive’ of Hong Kong – while enriching himself and his Beijing buddies.

Xi and the CCP by their actions and policies directly created the idea of an independent Hong Kong. By ignoring the needs and desires of HongKongers they sowed the seeds and then actively fertilised dissent and dissatisfaction.

Why because it’s easy to rule and skim the cream from the pot by pitting HongKonger against HongKonger.  Favouring and rewarding the sycophants, penalising those who don’t kiss the ring is designed to divide and distract while the oligarchy feasts on both.

If you think China is so wonderful, then why do so many mainland Chinese – including Xi and all his top CCP cronies – look to get their money out of China as quickly as possible!!

No other people in the world have so little faith in their own country when it comes to investing their own personal wealth.

Beijing and Xi want to destroy Hong Kong and it’s values including freedom of speech, an independent judiciary and an honest police force.

Yet it’s to Hong Kong that mainlanders flock to secure and safeguard their savings and future. You have to ask why they do this, if China – as supreme leader Xi loves to espouse – is such a wonderful country where all are equal and people’s rights are respected.

Xi and the CCP are so jealous of what we HongKongers have created without them that they need to destroy it because they fear it.

We do not agree with Andy Chan Ho-tin, but we respect that he has the right to express his views.

To quote the poem of antiNazi theologian and pastor Martin Niemöller

First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
     Because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
     Because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
     Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

Editorial: Court of Appeal Reject Oath Appeal

[gview file=”http://www.bcmagazine.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/CACV000224_2016.pdf”]

Today the Court of Appeal rejected the appeal of Yau Wai Ching, Sixtus Leung Chung Hang, and The President of The Legislative Council over their oath taking disqualification. The reasons are steeped in legalise but essentially amount to the fact that Legco and the HK courts are subservient to the Basic Law and that China can change and amend the Basic Law whenever and however it wants.

And that any amendments are how the law should have been read since it came into being on the 1 July, 1997. Thus if China ‘interprets’ the Basic Law and says that, for example, the HK Bauhinia flag is green, even though we can all see its red. Then the flag is green! And anyone who says otherwise can and will be sent to jail even if they said the flag was red in 1998 years before the new interpretation existed.

Given the judge’s very precise interpretation and reliance on the new wording of Article 104 then strictly speaking since 689 omitted the words Hong Kong from his oath then he should be also be removed from office (and have to hand back all the money given to him as he threw the vast majority of HongKongers under the bus). It won’t happen of course, there’s one rule for the entitled, rich and connected and another for everyone else.

The question is will the Court of Final Appeal (CoFA) stand up for the people of Hong Kong, who it must be pointed out freely chose and elected Yau Wai Ching and Sixtus Leung Chung Hang to represent them, and affirm that the laws of Hong Kong are worth the paper they are written on or do we live in the dictatorship that exists north of the border where ‘the law’ changes according to the daily whim and benefit of the Chinese Communist Party.

It’s unlikely as it would mean the CoFA having to make a ruling on the Basic Law and having to decide whether China can amend (and make no mistake this ‘interpretation’ is an amendment) and make the amendment retrospective (as the Court ruled regarding ‘interpretations’ in 1999), whenever they want. Much as I respect the members of the CoFA I doubt they are willing to do that.

As I’ve said before, for those HongKongers who love China so much, you’re free to move there. Just remember that anyone who gets rich in China moves their money out of China as quickly as possible, chooses to educate their children in England, USA or Hong Kong and goes to medical clinics overseas whenever they can. If the China the CCP supporting Chinese have created is so wonderful, why are they so keen to leave?

The Legacy of ‘Unequal Treaties’

unequal-treaties

No one can deny that Great Britain and China have had a long and contentious trading relationship.

To this day, many in China see this relationship through the historic lens of what has become known as the Unequal Treaties. Unlike so many things in China, the notion of an unequal treaty doesn’t quite sync with the perfunctory meaning one would first imagine.

In fact, any simple review of British Colonial History quickly shows that the principle driver behind the first war between Britain and China was Britain’s desire for trading treaties that were essentially equal. Whereas in the past, the Dragon Throne had only ever entered into treaties that overtly benefitted itself over and above the vassal or barbarian state. Between 1839-42, the British demanded, through the means of arms and military coercion, that China sign something that reflected the two great nations on par with each other both politically and economically.

Ever sticklers for detail that the British were, they sent back treaties numerous times so that the language within perfectly reflected an agreement between two equal countries, and thus ensuring that there were no hidden subtexts of one party being senior to the other. In fact, the Treaties between Britain and China were not unequal in their wording or intention. They were, in fact, the first ever treaty that the Dragon Throne entered on an equal basis.

From the Chinese side, what the term unequal alludes to, is the power relationship. Or Britain had greater power in setting the terms, mostly in the form of arms, to force China to sign the treaty. Or, if the power relationship had been more equal, China would never have signed an equal trade pact with the barbarian state, Britain.

For British people today, relating what happened in 1842 to David Cameron’s trade deals with China in 2015 is a long stretch, but no doubt it was the cherry on the top of a huge bumper bonanza for Xi Jinping’s UK delegation this week. History had finally come full circle, with the old oppressor Britain, bending over backwards, cap in hand, for divine blessings from the new Dragon Throne, apparently flush with cash.

Certainly the rulers of China, the CCP, didn’t force any trade deals upon modern day Britain. But from the tone of the ostentatious welcome afforded to the CCP, it was clear that for Cameron and Osbourne, China now has the economic clout to force Britain into modern day trade deals with echoes of the Unequal Treaties of yesteryear.

No doubt, the trade pacts that were signed were fair and equal and probably gushed with mutual respect between the two States. But just like in the original Unequal Treaties what will be remembered in history is what the text does not contain.

By being directly instructed not to talk about Human Rights or anything else that may “offend China,” Cameron conceded that Britain was the weaker party in the deal, and just like China in 1842, signed an unequal treaty that its citizens will come to resent in the years to come. For the billions of dollars of deals from China to Britain, come loaded with unwritten conditions for future UK governments to fulfil: Don’t meet the Dalai Lama, don’t comment on China’s human rights, don’t comment on China’s internal affairs, be compliant with China’s foreign policy, do not support Hong Kong, etc., etc. Or bad behaviours, as defined by the immoral CCP, will bring financial consequences for Britain, good behaviours will bring rewards. Plus, throw into this coercive relationship, the control of three nuclear reactors.

So, as long as Britain is compliant to the CCP’s will, the money will come and the reactors will keep running. Just in the same way as in 1842, where British gunboats would cease firing so long as the trade flowed in a manner that suited the Brits. It is these types of unwritten and conditional demands that make seemingly equal treaties seem very, very unequal, and is why many British people are in an uproar today.

All-in-all, Cameron’s 2015 China-Play was a bad day for British sovereignty. It was also a bad day for the future of global trade if other countries choose to follow suit and entertain a world where core-values are blatantly forfeited for short-term gains from predatory, authoritarian States.

Police Re-Write History to Remove Communists

HK Police website in 2010

The Hong Kong Police Force website has been re-writing history in an apparent attempt “clean up” the ‎Communist Party and pro-China individuals reputations. Words like “communist” have been removed in several places as have details of communists making bombs at school & setting up “struggle committees” during the 1967 communist instigated riots.

Another comment on a trend back then that resembles Hong Kong today has been removed “wealthy businessmen who had blessed the troubles, the “red fat cats” dispatched their children to universities in the much-disparaged United States and Britain”

As have all mentions of “Little Red Book”

Here is the original text from the Internet archive and ‘new’ version of history – deleted parts in bold

HK Police website in 2010

Police website text in 2010 – source
This brief flurry was but a rehearsal for the following spring. In China, the political turmoil spread and eventually lashed Hong Kong. Inflamed by rhetoric, fuelled by misplaced ideas of nationalism, huge mobs marched on Government House, waving aloft the Little Red Book and shouting slogans. Ranks of police faced crowds hurling insults, spitting, sometimes throwing acid. Never have strict discipline and stringent training paid such dividends. Staunchly, the thin khaki line held firm. Those early days in May 1967 were the start of a torrid, worrying summer. The mass protests tapered off, to be replaced by a campaign of terror and bombing. Bus and tram drivers were threatened, sometimes attacked if they went to work to keep Hong Kong on the move. Bombs were made in classrooms of left-wing schools and planted indiscriminately on the streets. Struggle committees were formed to foment strife against the government, although it was swiftly apparent none of the leaders to go to China to participate in the nationwide strife that was taking such an appalling toll, and the wealthy businessmen who had blessed the troubles, the “red fat cats” dispatched their children to universities in the much-disparaged United States and Britain.

Through the tear smoke and the terror, the police held firm. They never quavered.

Their loyalty was never in doubt. And in a remarkable show of support, the public rallied to their side. It was the common people of Hong Kong, and the police sworn to protect them, who turned the tide. The insanity gradually ebbed.

But was worse to come. In the most serious single incident of that year of violence, communist militia opened fire from the Chinese side of the border. Five policemen were cut down in the hail of bullets, nine others were injured. They were among a death toll which included bomb disposal officers killed trying to defuse booby-traps in city streets. The entire population was revolted by the bombings, particularly when a seven-year-old girl and her brother, aged two, playing outside their North Point home were killed.

Revived Police Website text
This brief flurry was but a rehearsal for the following spring. In China, the political turmoil spread and eventually lashed Hong Kong. Inflamed by rhetoric, fuelled by misplaced ideas of nationalism, huge mobs marched on Government House. Ranks of police faced crowds hurling insults, spitting, sometimes throwing acid. Never have strict discipline and stringent training paid such dividends. Staunchly, the thin khaki line held firm. In May 1967, the mass protests tapered off, but to be replaced by a campaign of terror and bombing. Bombs were planted indiscriminately on the streets.

new-police-website-text1-web

Through the tear smoke and the terror, the police held firm. They never quavered. Their loyalty was never in doubt. And in a remarkable show of support, the public rallied to their side. It was the common people of Hong Kong, and the police sworn to protect them, who turned the tide. The insanity gradually ebbed.

But was worse to come. In the most serious single incident of that year of violence, gunmen opened fire from the border area in Sha Tau Kok. Five policemen were shot dead in the hail of bullets, nine others were injured. They were among a death toll which included bomb disposal officers killed trying to defuse booby-traps in city streets. The entire population was revolted by the bombings, particularly when a seven-year-old girl and her brother, aged two, playing outside their North Point home were killed.

UPDATE
As the public increasingly criticises the police for re-writing history on its website, Police Commissioner Steven Lo Wai-chung is reported to have responded that the “streamlined version” is to match modern reading habits as the original version was “too long to fit in the page and people may lose interest in reading it.”

'new'-version-police-website3-web

Sources: 本土新聞Local Press, PassionTimes 熱血時報, 蘋果日報, Hong Kong Police Force, Real Hong Kong News, Internet Archive Wayback Machine

Why More Independence for Hong Kong Makes Sense

one country two systems

The Chinese economy is now facing its strongest challenges for a generation and Xi JinPing’s best efforts to create a nationalistic, shareholder, last stand for the stock market seem to have largely failed. What the fall out from this will be we can only speculate, but the enormous economic disaster that is the Chinese economy is not of Hong Kong’s making. Back in the colonial days, if the British economy collapsed, Hong Kong would not be expected to fall on its sword in sympathy.  Likewise, given the stormy times ahead for China, Hong Kongers should not be looking at going down with the sinking ship, but instead working on preserving what makes the city different, or the Two Systems part of the Basic Law. Given this, the idea of a Hong Kong City State becomes increasingly more viable and appealing.

The impracticalities of a Hong Kong City State are often premised on the geopolitics of Asia remaining similar to what it has been for the last 30 years. But once you accept the premise that the geopolitics of Asia are heading into turbulent seas, then the question of how best Hong Kong can survive the storm becomes much more pertinent and pressing. More independence and autonomy, and not less, suddenly become compelling.

When you live in the shadow, of the overly jealous and malign CCP, even uttering the word independence under your breath is high treason against The Party. Certainly, there are significant amounts of people who believe the independence debate in Hong Kong was created by the CCP to create social division within the democratic movement and brand everyone who opposes the government as splitists.  In China, there can be no worse a traitor than a splitist. However, most of the anti-independence arguments are actually ill-thought out if we work back from 2047. For, when we look at the pros and cons of more independence based on 2047 as a starting point, it starts to make a lot of sense and a much smarter path to follow than blithely accepting whatever bones the CCP wishes to throw Hong Kong erstwhile its own economy and political system rips itself apart.

It’s not too early to ask the question, what will happen come 2047? Does Hong Kong law become superseded by Mainland law? Because if that’s going to be the case, the day this is officially announced, whether it be tomorrow or in ten years time, will be like pulling a plug on the city. Money, resources and people will stampede to safer havens. Those that faithfully pledge their full allegiance to The Party, will be left in a hollow shell of a city as anything that creates real, global value will be gone.

If your argument against greater Hong Kong independence is that HK’s unchangeable destiny is to eventually be  fully assimilated into CCP’s China and become a carbon copy of any other CCP city then you must first be clear what these other cities will look like in five years time, or even five months time! Simply pointing out that we need to be more like ‘them’, but having no clue what ‘them’ will look like and having zero control of how ‘they’ are created is no plan at all. Hong Kong certainly has all the tools to make a positive contribution to the place known as China for many years to come. The same can’t be said of the multitude of cites we’re supposed to be more like, and that includes Shanghai. The most likely future for these cities are astronomically high, local debts, huge environmental clean-up bills, violent, social unrest and rampant corruption. None of which Hong Kong suffers from yet. Hong Kong has everything it needs to protect itself from such a bleak future, but unfortunately the current government seems intent on throwing away all the city’s global advantages in a lame attempt to show loyalty to a broken political part that pretends its a country.

No one who advocates greater independence is dreaming that Hong Kong isn’t part of China in a physical sense, but being geographically part of a continent and being ruined by the politically oppressive CCP are not one-in-the-same. The CCP is not China, it is not the country, neither is it the people. It is a shadowy, political organisation with a horrific track record for wreaking havoc upon the peoples of China throughout its very short and violent tenure. There will come a time when the CCP no longer holds power, but there will still be a China and also city in its south called Hong Kong. This is what the independence debate is based on, a practical approach to preservation, and there’s a lot to be protected here in this quasi-City State. This is the true pragmatic path for Hong Kongers now, or how does Hong Kong negotiate the impending disaster that is the CCP’s complete loss of trust in China and not be destroyed with it?

Currently the CCP tirelessly tries to bewitch pragmatists in Hong Kong with the narrative that the only future lies with them, a transient and decaying political entity, motivated by self-preservation and quick gain. However this lie becomes increasingly less convincing with every passing week.  Hong Kongers are no stranger in handling inept northern governments. They have played this game for almost two centuries and they know when the winds of change howl, and China looks like a shaky pile of eggs (危如累卵 – Wei Ru Lei Luan), their future lies in protecting their own autonomy and not integrating more into turmoil.

The opinions in this article are of those of the writer, if you agree or disagree feel free to leave a comment here or on our facebook page. The wonders of a free press allow for a discussion and debate of ideas – unlike north of the border.

cartoon: www.anntelnaes.com